Where the exposure sits in the motor
Source: Axion supply-chain finance model; synthetic data. Ferrite and other materials, and final assembly and duties, appear in the tabs but are not drawn.
Exposure
Exposure ledger
Annual spend and EBIT at risk, $ million; standard shock net of surcharges and hedges
Source: Axion supply-chain finance model; synthetic data. Price index: prior-year average = 100, one logarithmic scale for all rows. Top two: share of the category held by its two largest suppliers. Cover: weeks of stock. Risk profile: column height is the 1 to 5 score on , in that order. Shares may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
Margin bridge
Gross-margin bridge, prior year to last twelve months
Gross margin, percent of revenue; steps in basis points
Source: Axion supply-chain finance model; synthetic data. Axis starts at 28 percent. 1 basis point = $0.185 million of LTM revenue; dollar values show the margin effect at LTM revenue, not the change in gross profit.
Magnet supply
Magnet stock against export-license delays
Weeks from a licensing stop
Magnet-dependent revenue by end market
Revenue, last twelve months, $ million
Revenue at risk = magnet-dependent revenue per week × share from China-based suppliers × uncovered weeks. Contribution at 40 percent of revenue. Buffer stock is valued at magnet cost.
Stress test
Scenario
Drivers, annual effect
EBIT under the scenario
Annual EBIT, $ million
Source: Axion supply-chain finance model; synthetic data. Effects are annualized against LTM EBIT of $268 million and combine linearly. Mitigation is the loss avoided by initiatives and policies. When the scenario includes a license stoppage, run-rate savings count A1 at its $3.6 million price premium, because the license-delay line already captures the stoppage it protects against; otherwise A1 counts at its risk-adjusted $6.1 million.
Working capital
Cash conversion cycle
Days; current and with supplier finance and consignment
Inventory by stage
$ million; raw materials with weeks of cover
Actions
Initiatives and policies
$ million; NPV over seven years at 9 percent; select to include in the plan
| Include | Action | Lever | One-off | Run-rate EBIT | Cash | NPV | Payback |
|---|
A1 is risk-adjusted: defense contribution protected and expected stoppage loss avoided, net of an 8 percent price premium on shifted volume. NPVs follow each initiative's quarterly ramp. Initiatives overlap, so the total is a sum of standalone NPVs, not a portfolio value. Policies change price sensitivity and carry no NPV.
Run-rate EBIT from the selected initiatives
$ million a year, by quarter after approval; the outline shows all six initiatives when some are excluded
Method